In 2023, I formalized my long-term investment thesis under what I call the 4Gs portfolio. The framework is built around major societal, demographic, and technological transformations rather than short-term market cycles.
The 4Gs framework
- Grey: companies benefiting from ageing demographics.
- Green (Climate Tech): companies supporting climate mitigation and the energy transition.
- Generational / Gratification: companies focused on consumption, lifestyle, and entertainment.
- Global: a geographically diversified portfolio, investing across the US, Europe, China, Japan, and emerging markets.
The strategy remained unchanged in 2025. What changed was the environment.
2025 performance overview
In 2025, the 4Gs portfolio delivered a total return of +12.4% in euro terms, including dividends.
- Price return (ex-dividends): +10.3%
- Dividend yield: ~2.1% gross
- S&P 500 (USD): +16.4%
While the portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 on a price basis, this comparison needs context: the 4Gs is a globally diversified, thematic portfolio, exposed to multiple currencies and sectors beyond US technology.
Performance by theme
- Grey (ageing population): +18.7%
- Green (Climate Tech): +7.2%
- Generational: +4.6%
- Gratification: –8.8%
- Global (non-US / non-EU): +11.6%
Grey was the main contributor in 2025, while Climate Tech remained under pressure despite long-term fundamentals remaining intact.
Securities selection and investment process
The 4Gs portfolio follows a structured and repeatable investment process designed to balance conviction, diversification, and risk management.
The process combines several complementary layers:
- Universe research and quantitative screening: identification of potential investment candidates based on financial metrics, valuation, momentum, and liquidity.
- Qualitative evaluation: in-depth analysis of business models, competitive positioning, management quality, and long-term structural relevance.
- Sciences, society, and economic observation: continuous monitoring of demographic trends, technological shifts, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic forces.
- Investment decision: position sizing based on conviction level, valuation, portfolio balance, and existing exposure.
- Risk profile assessment: evaluation of downside risks at both security and portfolio levels, including concentration, sector, and currency exposure.
- Ongoing performance and momentum review: monitoring of operating performance, market behavior, and relative momentum versus expectations.
This process is applied continuously, allowing the portfolio to evolve over time while remaining anchored to its long-term thematic foundations.
Key portfolio decisions
I initially planned to rebalance from Grey toward Climate Tech in the first half of 2025. Following the US election and the implementation of new tariffs, market conditions became exceptionally volatile. I therefore adopted a wait-and-see approach.
In hindsight, executing the rebalance earlier would likely have improved 2025 performance — but discipline and risk management mattered more than “being right”.
The rebalance was ultimately executed in Q4 2025 by trimming the portfolio’s largest holding, EssilorLuxottica, and reallocating toward Climate Tech. This was primarily a concentration risk decision rather than a change in conviction.
2025 also marked a structural adjustment with approximately 16% of the portfolio allocated to high-yield equities, mainly within specialized REITs (Grey) and yield-oriented Climate Tech companies. This was both a defensive and valuation-driven choice.
Top contributors and detractors
Strongest contributors included T1 Energy, GigaCloud, GE Vernova, Vestas, Alibaba, Alphabet, Aurubis, Baidu, Tencent, Brookfield Renewable, Ventas, Panasonic, HASI, LONGi, and EssilorLuxottica.
The weakest performers were Ørsted, XPLR Infrastructure, Pernod Ricard, and JD.com.
Currency impact
Foreign exchange had a material impact on euro-denominated returns:
- GBP/EUR: –5.2%
- CNY/EUR: –8%
- EUR/USD: +13.5%
- EUR/JPY: +12%
With more than 40% of the portfolio denominated in USD, and over 50% exposed to currencies other than the euro, foreign exchange movements were a meaningful headwind in 2025.
Multi-year performance and benchmarks
To put the 2025 results into perspective, it is useful to look at the portfolio’s performance over several years and across market cycles.
- 2023: 4Gs (EUR) +19% vs S&P 500 +24%, Nasdaq 100 +49%
- 2024: 4Gs (EUR) +25% vs S&P 500 +24%, Nasdaq 100 +29%
- 2025: 4Gs (EUR) +10% vs S&P 500 +16%
Over the same period, individual themes evolved as follows:
- Grey: +11% (2023), +22% (2024), +19% (2025)
- Green: +25% (2023), +32% (2024), +7% (2025)
- Gratification / Generational: +4% / +53% (2023), 0% / +35% (2024), –9% / +5% (2025)
- Global: –11% (2023), +14% (2024), +12% (2025)
From an initial reference value of €100, the portfolio reached approximately €164 by the end of 2025. The corresponding total return index (TRI), including reinvested dividends, stands at approximately +21% over the three-year period.
Reflections and outlook
2025 reinforced the importance of staying focused on fundamentals and portfolio design during volatile periods. It also highlighted areas for improvement, notably the need to cut underperforming positions more decisively.
I continue to view the energy transition as one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. Looking into 2026, the strategy remains unchanged, with dividends reinvested selectively and close attention paid to valuation, risk concentration, and macro uncertainty.
If you’re curious about how I’m exploring AI beyond investing, you can find more about my work on HEA-World here.
Long-term investing is not about avoiding volatility, but about navigating it with discipline.
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